India expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2025, says SIPRI

Editorial Lens

"India's strategic posture is undergoing a critical transition from a localized deterrence model focused on Pakistan to a broader regional deterrence framework aimed at China, evidenced by the expansion of its nuclear stockpile to 190 warheads and the development of longer-range delivery systems. This shift reflects a global trend where nuclear capabilities are being reintegrated as core instruments of national power. Furthermore, 'Operation Sindoor' (2025) marks a watershed moment in South Asian security, signaling the arrival of hybrid warfare through the first active integration of cyber operations within a kinetic military conflict. While India maintains its status as the world's fifth-largest military spender, its position as the second-largest arms importer underscores a persistent strategic dependency on foreign procurement, highlighting a tension between its high budgetary allocations and the goals of indigenous defense manufacturing (Aatmanirbharta)."

1. Key Global Findings

• The Nuclear Club: Nine states continue to possess and modernize their nuclear stockpiles: the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
• Policy Shift: Global powers are increasingly prioritizing nuclear weapons as core instruments of national power.

2. India's Strategic Nuclear Matrix

• Warhead Inventory: India’s estimated nuclear stockpile expanded to 190 warheads by early 2026, increasing from approximately 180 warheads in 2025.
• Geopolitical Orientation: New Delhi’s modernization program is shifting focus towards developing longer-range delivery systems aimed at establishing full deterrence against China, while maintaining standard operational readiness relative to Pakistan.

3. Defence Economics & Rankings

• Global Spending Rank: India retained its position as the world's fifth-largest military spender in 2025.
• The Spending Ladder: India ranks directly behind the United States, China, Russia, and Germany.
• The Defense Budget: India’s military expenditure was estimated at $92.1 billion, representing an 8.9% increase over the previous fiscal year.
• Arms Import Footprint: India remains the second-largest importer of major arms globally for the 2021–25 tracking window, making up 8.2% of total global imports.
• Top Importer Cohort: The five largest arms importers are Ukraine, India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Pakistan, collectively commanding 35% of the global import share.

4. Changing Dimensions of Regional Conflict

• Operation Sindoor: The report classifies the May 2025 India-Pakistan military confrontation as an "unusually severe military crisis".
• Target Selection: Indian counter-strikes during the flare-up specifically targeted Pakistani air and missile bases possessing suspected nuclear roles.
• Cyber Integration Debut: For the first time in South Asian military history, both countries actively integrated cyber operations into a live, kinetic military conflict.